In 2026, international gold prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, with a shift in the central price range, and the structural bull market remains unchanged. The core range is expected to be $4,800–$6,200 per ounce, with increased short-term volatility but still room for upward movement in the medium term.
I. Current Market Situation (as of March 13, 2026)
London Spot Gold: $5105/oz, fluctuating at high levels this year with a range exceeding 30%
New York Gold Futures: $5108/oz
Key Characteristics: Sharp rises and falls, repeated back-and-forth movements; $5000 is strong support, $5200-$5300 is key resistance
II. Core Driving Factors
1. Federal Reserve Policy and Real Interest Rates (Core Variable)
A 50-75bp rate cut is expected in 2026, with declining real interest rates benefiting gold.
Inflation resilience (February CPI YoY 2.4%) leads to fluctuating expectations of rate cuts, putting short-term downward pressure on gold prices.
The March 19th FOMC meeting is a key point: a dovish stance could push prices up to $5300-$5400, while a hawkish stance could pull back to $5000-$5100.
2. Central Bank Gold Purchases (Strongest Support)
Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years, with a net purchase of 863 tons in 2025.
95% of central banks plan to… China’s central bank continues to increase its holdings in 2026, marking 15 consecutive months of increases. Gold purchases are not for short-term profit, but rather to solidify the $5,000 floor for gold prices.
3. Geopolitics (Short-term impulsive move): Tensions in the Middle East, risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict. Political uncertainty in the US election year and risks of global order restructuring. Escalating conflicts can trigger impulsive price increases, providing a sustained safe-haven premium for gold.
4. Weakening US Dollar Credit (Long-term logic): Accelerated global “de-dollarization” leads to a revaluation of gold as a hard currency without credit risk. High US debt weakens the safety of dollar assets, highlighting gold’s function as a credit risk hedge.
5. Supply and Demand: Stable mineral supply, increased demand from central banks/institutions/individuals, with an estimated supply-demand gap of 320 tons. High prices suppress physical consumption, but strong investment demand (ETFs, central banks).
III. Price Movement and Range in 2026
1. Short-term (1-3 months): High-level wide-range fluctuations, with a core range of $5,100-$5,400. 1. Gold Price (ounce)
Support: $5000 (psychological level), $5050-$5100 (central bank cost zone)
Resistance: $5200-$5300 (previous high), $5400 (institutional target)
2. Medium-term (3-12 months)
First half: Consolidation within the $5000-$5500 range, with a potential surge to $5800 by mid-year.
Second half: Rate cuts implemented + peak demand season, accelerating upward movement, challenging $5800-$6200.
Full-year average: $5400-$5600/ounce
3. Institutional Target Prices
Goldman Sachs: $5400/ounce
JPMorgan Chase: $6300/ounce
UBS: $6200/ounce
IV. Key Risks
Higher-than-expected inflation, Fed delays rate cuts, triggering a deep short-term correction
Easing of geopolitical tensions, waning risk aversion
Slower pace of central bank gold purchases, ETFs Capital outflows; US dollar index unexpectedly strengthens; real interest rates rise.
V. Investment Strategy Reference
Long-term allocation: Buy in batches on pullbacks (5000-5100), with a stop-loss at $5000.
Swing trading: Pay attention to the resistance at 5200-5300 and the support at 5050-5100, buy low and sell high.
Risk control: Control position size, set stop-loss orders, and avoid chasing highs.