EXPECT a huge crowd at Sha Tin in Hong Kong on Sunday to witness the local sporting highlight of the season – the 10-furlong £2.5m BMW Hong Kong Derby (8.05am).
Finding the winner will be no mean feat, and there are question marks about many gallopers truly staying the trip, while others will need plenty of luck during their journey. Many pundits believe the draw is all-important, with double-figure gates at a big disadvantage.
The treacherous 10-furlongs start is in front of the grandstands and with only 130 metres before the first bend, many gallopers could find themselves caught wide and covering extra ground.
Statistics say otherwise, however, with 11 winners since the turn of the century coming from double-figure gates and no horse from draw one having been victorious.
The 4-Y-0 Classic Series form – Hong Kong Classic Mile and Hong Kong Classic Cup – has been a pointer to the BMW Hong Kong Derby winner in the past, but this season has proved inconclusive with six different placed horses in the two races.
The gods of fortune have once again turned their backs on long-term fancy Numbers who has been saddled with gate 13.
However, all is not lost. The likely pace set up looks as if of none of his rivals will take him on for the lead, meaning jockey Derek Leung could get an easy uncontested time out in front.
Leung made a mistake by setting fractions too fast in the middle part of the Hong Kong Classic Cup and was overrun in the latter stages of the race.
He won’t make the same mistake again and this strong-staying galloper is the only contender to have won over the distance, so he could be hard to pass in the closing stages.
Stormy Grove caused a shock when winning the Hong Kong Classic Cup, coming from the clouds with a withering burst of speed.
With Numbers likely to turn the ‘afterburners’ on well before the home straight, he may not get the race run to suit this time and is passed over.
Everything that could go wrong did for Classic Mile winner Little Paradise in the Classic Cup. He started slowly before over racing and could get no run with an impeded journey down the home straight.
The big question mark for him is the 10-furlong trip, with nothing in his breeding suggesting he will stay the distance.
INVINCIBLE IBIS, however, looks ‘bombproof’ after a smooth preparation when finishing strongly for second in the Hong Kong Classic Cup.
His draw in gate three looks the place to be – there have been four winners from that barrier since the year 2000 – and his stable are on fire with trainer Mark Newnham producing a career best five victories at the Valley on Wednesday.
He is hard to oppose in the feature with Numbers and improving middle-distance performer Patch Of Cosmo looking to be his main threats.
POINTERS
Invincible Ibis 8.05am Sha Tin
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