Italy World Cup flop kills five per cent of bets on tournament winner

Italy’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup this week was an early win for bookmakers as it killed five per cent of wagers on the outright winner, betting data shows. 

Four-time champions Italy lost on penalties in a play-off with Bosnia and Herzegovina on Tuesday, meaning they will miss a third men’s World Cup in a row this summer. 

Figures from Sportradar, which processes betting tickets for more than 250 bookmakers worldwide, show that Italy were one of the most-backed teams to lift the trophy.

European champions and bookies’ favourites Spain have attracted the most bets in the outright market, with 18 per cent, ahead of holders Argentina on 13 per cent.

France and Brazil each accounted for eight per cent of wagers on the World Cup winner, with England close behind on seven per cent.

Italy received five per cent of bets in the outright market, despite their miserable recent record of failing to qualify for the tournament since 2014.

Punters have shied away from four-time champions Germany, who make up just two per cent of bets on the World Cup winner.

Co-hosting nations the USA, Mexico and Canada each attracted less than one per cent of bets on the outright market.

Port Vale striker popular in golden boot bettin

In the golden boot market, France and Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe is the best-backed player by a distance with 38 per cent, according to the data from Sportradar’s Managed Trading Services.

Erling Haaland is the next most-fancied to be the World Cup’s top scorer by punters, with 16 per cent of bets on the Norway and Manchester City striker.

England captain Harry Kane has attracted just 10 per cent of bets despite enjoying a prolific season with Bayern Munich and being the second shortest odds behind Mbappe.

A surprise name among the most-backed players for the golden boot is Ben Waine, who plays his club football in England’s third tier with Port Vale.

Waine, who represents New Zealand, is a 500-1 shot, which perhaps goes some way to explaining why he has received two per cent of all bets on the market.