Tories brace for heavy losses as Badenoch outpolls rivals

Five years ago, the Conservatives were polling at around 40 per cent, buoyed by the vaccine rollout and post-Brexit momentum, and went on to gain 235 seats in the 2021 local elections.

But ahead of May’s vote, that position seems to have shifted.

Political scientist Stephen Fisher has suggested the party could lose as many as 1,000 councillors, a potential reversal on a historic scale following its 2024 general election defeat.

But Labour is also braced for losses, particularly in areas where it has significant exposure, including London.

Recent polling highlights how fragmented the electoral landscape has become.

A YouGov survey puts Reform UK in the lead on 23 per cent, with the Conservatives and Greens both on 19 per cent and Labour slightly behind on 18 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are on 12 per cent.

Other polling aggregators place the Conservatives even lower, at around 18.1 per cent, well behind Reform on 28.5 per cent.

Despite this, Kemi Badenoch has emerged as the most popular party leader in Westminster polling, albeit with a negative rating.

A More in Common survey puts her net approval at minus nine, ahead of Keir Starmer on minus 42 and Nigel Farage on minus 16. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey is close behind her on minus 11.

Badenoch has argued that voters distinguish between her leadership and the record of the previous Conservative government.

“People consider me distinct from the problems of the last parliament,” she said during campaigning this week.

Her standing within the party also remains strong. ConservativeHome’s latest survey of members places her top of the shadow cabinet rankings for a third consecutive time, with a net satisfaction score above 80.

Labour also faces losses as smaller parties gain ground

The expected losses are not confined to the Conservatives.

Forecasts suggest Labour could lose up to 2,000 seats in May’s elections, reflecting the scale of pressure on both major parties less than a year after the general election.

At the same time, smaller parties are making gains. Reform UK insiders have predicted a net gain of around 1,000 seats, while the Greens are also expected to attract voters dissatisfied with both Labour and the Conservatives.

The elections will be the first major test of voter sentiment since 2024 and come amid a broader shift away from traditional two-party dominance.

Badenoch has focused her campaign on issues including crime, tax and support for businesses, while also taking a combative approach in Parliament on issues, such as the Mandelson appointment row.

She has dismissed suggestions that poor local election results could trigger a leadership challenge. “I am going to fight on”, she said, adding that repeated leadership changes had not benefited the party in the past.