Duration and scope of the trade truce
The current truce expires on 10 November. The immediate question is whether it is extended for six months, one year or longer, and whether the extension prevents new tariffs and export controls.
Watch for progress on the proposed Board of Trade and reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly US$30 billion of goods.
Rare-earth exports and critical-mineral licences
Washington wants more reliable flows of Chinese rare-earth magnets and critical minerals. China controls around 70% of global mining and more than 85% of refining and production, giving Beijing significant negotiating leverage.
A concrete licensing mechanism would be more market-positive than another general promise to maintain supplies.
AI chips and technology restrictions
The critical issue is whether the AI dialogue remains focused on safety or expands into semiconductor export licensing.
Any easing of access to advanced US chips would support semiconductor sentiment, while tighter controls or accusations of model theft would weigh on the Nasdaq 100 and chipmakers.
Soybeans, Boeing and measurable Chinese purchases
Markets will look for specific purchase volumes and implementation dates. Earlier commitments included additional US agricultural purchases and more than 200 Boeing aircraft, but several elements remain incomplete.
A headline without tonnage, dollar value or delivery schedules is unlikely to sustain a rally.
Taiwan and Iran are the geopolitical tail risks
Taiwan remains the most dangerous issue because a shift in US language or new arms-sale threats could overwhelm progress on trade.
China’s economic relationship with Iran is another potential source of friction. These issues matter because they could turn a commercially constructive summit into a broader strategic confrontation.
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