Could the US midterm election outcome get SA back into Agoa?

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JIMMY MOYAHA: The US midterm elections have come out in terms of the results. They were still I think waiting for one or two states to declare – I believe Alaska still outstanding. I’m not sure if that has been finalised yet. Nevertheless, the outcome of those elections has meant that the Democrats have taken control over the Senate as well as the House of Representatives.

That has some implications on everybody’s relationships with the United States, as President Donald Trump of course was part of the Republican party.

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Those implications might not be kicking in as soon as we had hoped, but we’re going to take a look at South Africa’s conversations and our story in more detail with former ambassador and director at RiskRecon, Dr Kingsley Makhubela.

He joins us on the line now to see what we make of this. Dr Makhubela, lovely having you on the show, as always. Thanks so much for taking the time.

Were you surprised by the outcome of the elections?

KINGSLEY MAKHUBELA: No, Jimmy, it was not surprising.

It has been coming. If you look at the challenges and issues that really drive the American voters, the economy is one of those things.

The Americans really don’t care about anything else, but lately they started talking about – the American public – and started to be very concerned about the ‘forever wars’ that the country is forever engaged in, foreign wars, and it diverts large resources for this these wars.

So it has been coming.

JIMMY MOYAHA: Dr Makhubela, I want to look at what the results mean for South Africa and our conversations. We know that just this week, prior to the election results coming out, prior to voting day in South Africa, we were informed that we would be removed from the Agoa agreement. We would no longer enjoy its benefits.

And following the midterm results, President Cyril Ramaphosa has expressed optimism around being able to re-engage in that dialogue and potentially achieve a different outcome there.

I want to get your thoughts on that dynamic and particularly the relationship between South Africa and the United States, and how that potentially starts to shift.

KINGSLEY MAKHUBELA: Jimmy, it’s just a pity that South African politicians are starting to express an opinion about the outcome of the American elections.

If you go back to 2024, during the [former US president Joe] Biden administration, I think it was the 10th of June or the 9th of July – I’m sorry – in that time when the house passed an act to review the relations between South African and the United States.

At that time, about 274 Republicans voted for this, and 61 Democrats voted for the same resolution.

And the contention around that time was centred around three countries – South Africa’s relations with China, Russia and Iran.

And those issues were taken over also by the Trump administration.

They are likely to stay as sticking points of the South Africa-US relations, because fundamentally the US agreed that these are their adversaries.

But more than that, Jimmy, was the fact that the world is changing. There are new powers that are emerging, new hegemonies that are threatening the US by a foothold on this global hegemony. So that’s where the issue is.

I’m a bit taken back for people to think that because there’s a change in Capitol Hill it would translate to changes of policy.

It may change a little in terms of certain nuances like the question of the Afrikaner refugees.

The current political establishment within Capitol Hill may not emphasise that more, but they’ll still be guided by the White House in terms of those issues.

JIMMY MOYAHA: Dr Makhubela, before I let you go, I want to take a look at how we then move forward with the conversations after this. We now know the outcome of the midterms; we know the outcome of our own local government elections and what that will result in for our local conversations. Internationally speaking though, we have still that relationship to repair.

We have still got a president in the White House who is not going to be moving anytime soon – unless we hear otherwise – which means we have a conversation ahead between South Africa and the United States.

Whether we want to be optimistic about it or not, there are realities to that conversation. How do we move that forward?

KINGSLEY MAKHUBELA: Well, the United States – South Africa, I think, has done more in terms of trying to persuade the United States in terms of the strategic interests of both countries.

But the ball is in the US court because it’s the US that is playing hard ball, and the US is playing this cohesive diplomacy – and it doesn’t help.

Will the changes that have just happened in the last few days influence the US to move to kind of a soft diplomacy? I don’t think we likely to see that, not even in the foreseeable future.

I think the US would keep on playing both the carrot and the stick in terms of its engagement with South Africa, unfortunately.

JIMMY MOYAHA: Well, we’ll see how that carrot-and-stick relationship continues to unfold, and we’ll see whether or not the return of the Democrats to the house as well as to the Senate will have a positive or negative bearing on global relationships and on South Africa’s relationships. For now, though, we’ll leave this conversation on that particular note.

Former ambassador and director at RiskRecon, Dr Kingsley Makhubela, joined us to take a look at the outcome of the US midterm elections and the potential impact that outcome would have on South Africa’s relationships with the United States.