Crude oil advanced in volatile trading and equities lost momentum as investors remained wary ahead of President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to make a peace deal, with tentative ceasefire signals tempered by the risk of further escalation.
Brent rose 1.2% to trade above $111 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses in the run-up to Trump’s Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline.
Global equities — after gaining Monday on ceasefire hopes — fluctuated as uncertainty about the war kept investors on the sidelines. US stock-index futures fell 0.4%. Asian shares trimmed earlier advances to rise 0.5%, led by technology stocks, which are viewed as less exposed to the six-week conflict in the Middle East. Contracts indicated a tepid open for European stocks.
Traders are cautious ahead of Trump’s deadline as uncertainty over escalation risks, oil supply disruptions and policy responses limits conviction despite tentative ceasefire signals. Attention remains firmly on the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for Middle East oil flows — with the US president insisting any deal must ensure uninterrupted transit through the waterway.
A JPMorgan Chase & Co gauge of one-month volatility in Group-of-10 currencies rose 17 basis points to 7.98% on Monday, though it remained within a recent range, signaling mild rather than severe concerns about the coming deadline.
“Market participants will remain highly sensitive to further developments out of the Middle East, which continue to act as the primary driver of sentiment,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, in a note. “All eyes will be on news wires as the day progresses, but the skew seems to be to the downside at the moment.”
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Trump said talks with Iran are “going well” ahead of the deadline to agree to a deal, even as he insisted that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be part of any accord. If Iran doesn’t agree to the US’s terms, the military may destroy “every bridge in Iran by 12 o’clock tomorrow night” and put every power plant “out of business,” Trump warned Monday.
In other corners of the market, gold swung between gains and losses to trade around $4 650 an ounce. Treasury 10-year yields gained one basis point to 4.34%. Bitcoin fell more than 1.5% to trade around $68 700.
“I’m quite sure the markets are not fully pricing the worst-case scenario,” Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told Bloomberg Television’s Avril Hong. Singapore’s top diplomat warned the economic fallout from the war in Iran could worsen.
The US president’s self-imposed deadline marks the latest pivotal moment in the war, which has killed thousands of people and triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global oil market. The president has struggled to find an off-ramp to the conflict — increasingly unpopular with Americans who are seeing average gasoline prices above $4 a gallon.
Iran reportedly passed a rejection of a ceasefire proposal to mediator Pakistan. It demanded a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction efforts, in addition to protocol for safe passage through Hormuz, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
“This is a market being driven by headlines,” said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro. “We saw it on Monday, when reports of a potential 45-day ceasefire framework sent equities higher and oil lower, only for Trump’s rhetoric about destroying Iranian infrastructure to pull the mood back in the opposite direction.”
Asian and US equities had risen on Monday amid hopes for a ceasefire. Axios reported that US allies are pressing for a last-minute deal with Iran, citing sources with knowledge of the talks.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say…
The risk mood is deteriorating on Tuesday with US equity contracts in the red and oil futures climbing in an all too familiar show of fragility, as investors wait on the latest Trump deadline. Once again, there is a lack of conviction among investors, but traders in US equity markets have generally shown more resilience, so the moves in Asia may not sustain into the American session.
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— Mark Cranfield, MLIV Asia. For full analysis.
Even as traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments, they awaited this week’s key inflation readings. Data published Monday showed the US service economy expanded in March at a slower pace as employment shrank by the most since 2023 and input prices accelerated.
While investors have been fixated on geopolitical risks, the macro data continues to point to a resilient economy and a still-constructive earnings outlook, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Geopolitical risks themselves have not been resolved, but volatility indexes in Japan, the US, and Europe have peaked, suggesting that markets may have largely priced in these risks,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 2:01 p.m. Tokyo time
- Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 0.1%
- Japan’s Topix rose 0.1%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.5%
- The Shanghai Composite was little changed
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.1%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.1537
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.75 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8764 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $68 815.29
- Ether fell 1.7% to $2,112.64
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.35%
- Japan’s 10-year yield declined 2.5 basis points to 2.400%
- Australia’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.98%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $115.35 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,660.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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